Bitcoin’s midterm record shows mixed short-term returns
A TechFlow review of 4 US midterm elections challenges the idea that Bitcoin always falls around the vote, while warning that the small historical sample cannot establish a future trend.
jienweng
A TechFlow analysis of Bitcoin around the 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022 US midterm elections challenges the idea that every midterm brings a sell-off. The review found sharply different short-term outcomes across its 4-election sample.
Bitcoin fell 45.5% in the 30 days after the 2018 election, compared with a 31.6% rise after the 2010 vote, according to the analysis. Reported returns a year after the elections ranged from +23.0% for 2014 to +1580.0% for 2010; the 2018 result was +45.2% despite the initial decline.
TechFlow cautioned that the sample is limited and that the current dollar interest-rate environment and ETF capital structure differ significantly from earlier cycles. The historical results do not establish an inevitable future trend or isolate elections as the cause of Bitcoin’s moves.
